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Global Economic Growth at a Crossroad in the Post-pandemic Era
—General Analysis Based on Economics
Yi Xianrong
Abstract: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy was basically stable; the probability of short-term economic recession was not high, but the momentum for a full recovery was weak. Although low growth, low inflation and low interest rate are normal, they are only a kind of representation resulting from evaluating the rapidly developing digital economy with the traditional theories, measurement models and statistical indicators. We should refrain from over-estimating these indexes and reconstruct an index system more suitable for the era of digital economy. The excessive credit expansion policies adopted by the central banks of different countries will help to stimulate the short-term economic growth and avoid the overnight collapse of the massive debts, but they cannot guarantee a country's sustainable economic growth in the long run. Instead, they are the root cause of the outbreak of financial crisis and economic recession. Meanwhile, the outbreak of the pandemic broke this normal, and the global economy will face recession, even a possible great depression. For this, Each Country's government has taken traditional large-scale fiscal and financial rescue measures, but it is difficult to stop the trend of global economic recession. The countries should prepare for the worst and take corresponding measures promptly, so as to avert peril in the future.
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, unlimited QE, Japanese disease, excessive credit expansion, Phillips curve
【作者簡介】易憲容，青島大學財富管理研究院院長，青島互聯網金融研究院院長，教授、博導。研究方向為制度經濟學、現代金融理論、中國金融、國際金融、房地產金融、金融科技。主要著作有《金融市場基礎性制度的理論研究》《中國居住正義的理論研究》《中國利率市場化改革的理論研究》《流動性與金融危機的理論研究》《金融市場的合約分析》等。
